The Moodie Tipster: Who will win the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby?

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Martin Moodie
Martin Moodie is the Founder & Chairman of The Moodie Report.

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It’s been a while between drinks as they say, but I’m glad to report that The Moodie Tipster (as the carefully disguised photo above shows, we cannot reveal his identity) is back in business for this Sunday’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at The Curragh racetrack in Dublin.

Regular readers of this Blog will know that the Tipster’s track record is an enviable one – in fact our gambling activities were our fastest-growing revenue stream in the crisis year of 2009. After a while away from the course, can he maintain his proud punting tradition of picking winners?

We’re offering readers the chance to put their own punditry skills on the line. Anyone picking the winner of the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby in our competition goes into the draw to win a ticket in the retailer’s ‘Finest Surprise’ raffle – offering the chance to win a luxury motor vehicle.

To help you on your way, here are the runners and The Moodie Tipster’s insider advice (Note: We will be updating this column in light of any weather or runner changes).

Remember, the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby follows on closely from the English (Epsom) Derby and in recent years it has tended to confirm the form of the earlier Classic. Watch out for the runners from trainer Aidan O’Brien – he has produced the winner for the past five years and has every chance of a super sixth.

All entries by e-mail headed ‘Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby Winner’ to Martin@TheMoodieReport.com by noon Sunday please. Please check online to see if your selection is a definite starter.

Carlton House:  Trained by the great Sir Michael Stoute and owned by a certain well-known inhabitant of Buckingham Palace, Carlton House was an excellent third in the Epsom Derby despite losing a shoe (Jimmy Choo presumably) and looks like going out a short-priced 13/8 favourite. Remembering that (see picture below) Dubai Duty Free boss Colm McLoughlin is on close-speaking terms with the Queen, could make this particular House a home run. Expect at the very least a majestic effort.

colm_mcloughlin_HM_queen_apr10

Treasure Beach: One of four runners trained by Aidan O’Brien, who knows how to win this race (he’s won the last five), Treasure Beach was runner-up to French-trained winner Pour Moi in the Epsom Derby. The colt also won the Chester Vase, which sounds like something listed in Dubai Duty Free’s ceramics department. The symbolism is there for all to see – over the past three decades Dubai Duty Free has turned the desert sands of the emirate into a veritable treasure beach. The Moodie Tipster’s pick.

Seville: The name is more Aldeasa than Dubai Duty Free but don’t count out the Epsom Derby flop who will prefer the forgiving Curragh track a great deal more.  Nevertheless its early 10/1 odds look a mite generous and the distance between it and the winner could ultimately just about match that from Dublin to Andalusia.

Native Khan: A steady fifth in the Epsom Derby suggests a place prospect for this talented three year-old colt. But winning? Trainer Ed Dunlop says Khan, we say can’t.

Memphis Tennessee: Home of Graceland but cloud cuckoo land is more like it for anyone who thinks it will win. However, he is another Aidan O’Brien entry and odds of 12/1 suggest he’s not without a chance. Memphis, of course, is mentioned in scores of popular rock songs, notably Proud Mary by Creedence Clearwater Revival and Honky Tonk Women by the Rolling Stones, but we think the horse’s connections will be singing only one musical genre come Sunday night – the blues.

Roderic O’Connor: Trained by, you guessed it, Aidan O’Brien, this respected contender bears the name of a famous Irish painter. Does that mean he will win easel-y? Be flat out on the canvas? Brushing with glory? One thing is for certain, our eyes will be a water colour if  he upsets Treasure Beach. And he just could…

Dunboyne Express: Priced at 20/1 but unless the Irish skies tip down like Guinness being poured in Dublin’s Temple Bar on a Saturday night, it may as well be 2 million to one for this soft-track specialist. Has yet to run beyond a mile so will he be staying on? For breakfast the next day maybe. (Update 1: But wait… it is raining in Dublin, and the forecast is for more of the same over the next three days. Maybe this Express won’t turn out to be a slow coach. Keep an eye on those odds, if they start to tumble faster than the rain, get your money on.).

Notable Graduate:  Actually the original Graduate, Dustin Hoffman, would probably have a better chance for alas this well-bred colt looks like finishing bottom of the class of 2011. Odds of 25-1 suggest he has two chances. Slim and none. And Slim, as they say, just left town.

Best Hello: Worst goodbye more like it, as the only hello the likely outsider of the field will be able to muster to its fellow competitors will be at the start of the race. By the time the 25/1 shot finishes, it’ll be a case of ‘Goodnight’. However, for those who like to back outsiders, it’s worth noting that this is the only Arab-owned runner in a race sponsored by an Arabian company. UPDATE: Today (Friday) the horse was declared a non-runner. Hello Goodbye…

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